Tuesday, November 3, 2009

My 2nd biggest problem with tonight's elections

My first is obvious.  I'm a raging liberal.  Raging.  I am half donkey.  Take a blood sample if you wish; I don't lie.  So the results thus far in the Virginia Governor’s race (VAGov), New Jersey Governor’s race (NJGov) and likely the upcoming results in New York’s 23rd Congressional District (NY23), are to my displeasure as a Democrat. 

As of posting time, calls had been made for the GOP in NJGov, and, even worse for the people of the commonwealth, VAGov.  In the former, Republican Chris Christie bested incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine.  In the latter, ultra-conservative Bob McDonnell took an easy victory home over Virginia state senator Creigh Deeds.

Outside of Mark Kirk, the representative from suburban Chicago that will most likely be the GOP nominee for the Illinois Senate seat my ultimate boss, current state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, seeks, McDonnell is now public enemy number one, as far as I’m concerned.

Although McDonnell says his views since writing it have changed, a thesis paper he wrote when 34 years old should give the nation pause as to where it is headed.  McDonnell’s thesis on feminism and family values essentially says that working women are a detriment to society and functional families, and that “homosexuals” are the main problem in America today.  Is this really who you want, Virginia? 

The bigger issue in terms of this blog, though, is the problem I have with so many people calling tonight’s results a referendum on President Obama.  Let’s break this down.  A historically red state with an unprecedented track record of electing a governor from the opposite party as the president (true since 1977) elects a GOP candidate against an extremely weak blue candidate with a Democrat in the Oval Office, and somehow, tonight’s vote somehow represents how they feel about Obama?

Aside from the fact that Deeds was, for all intents and purposes, a weak candidate, Obama’s approval rating in Virginia is still above 50 percent, and 56 percent of voters said their feelings on Obama had nothing to do with their vote today.  And of the voters who told exit pollsters that their Obama feelings influenced their vote, only 24 percent said that negative feelings toward Obama influenced them.

The same holds true for New Jerseyans.  Let alone Corzine’s approval rating treacherously in the 40s, New Jersey’s dead-last rank in economic development among states, and Corzine being an extremely wealthy former Goldman-Sachs executive; exit polls asking the same question to voters in NJGov showed that 60 percent said Obama had no impact on their vote, and of the 39 percent who said their Obama feelings did influence their votes, 20 percent voted to show support for Obama.

NY23 is perhaps the most interesting of the races with candidates tonight.  Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, for weeks the odds-on favorite to win the upstate district that hasn’t gone blue since the Civil War, trails narrowly the Democrat Bill Owens after GOP candidate Dede Scozzofava dropped out of the race over the weekend.  If the Republicans/conservatives can’t even hold a district which they haven’t lost since the 1860s, let alone win by a substantial margin, how is this a referendum on Obama?

And with all of these ultra-right conservatives becoming the “revolution” of the Republican Party, how can the GOP have room for moderates and win any elections except those in districts like NY23?

With 87 percent of precincts reporting, it looks like they might not even do that.

Suck it, Michael Steele.

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